Drafting for Success: Analyzing MLB Organizations’ Ability to Develop Homegrown Talent in the Bonus Pool Era (2012–2024)
Back in July, I looked at how MLB organizations drafted and developed players. Using Baseball Reference WAR (bWAR), it gave insight into which teams (regardless of pick number) draft and develop players, because it only looked at homegrown players (i.e. drafted and signed players). This list does not included international signees. The purpose of this is to see which orgs draft talent and develop talent into major league contributors.
The time span begins in the bonus pool era (2012) due to the added element of adhering to a bonus pool to get players. Here is an updated version through the 2024 season.
The Astros consistently sit atop of this list, as they are a standard in terms of developing talent throughout the minor leagues.
Our World Series Matchup has both the Dodgers and the Yankees, both amongst the Top 10 orgs in this span in terms drafting and developing talent.
Some Examples (again career bWAR thru 2024 season):
Dodgers:
Will Smith — 18.5 WAR
Walker Buehler — 12.3 WAR
Gavin Lux — 7.8 WAR
James Outman — 3.2 WAR
Gavin Stone — 0.7 WAR
Yankees:
Aaron Judge — 52.8 WAR
Nestor Cortes — 9.1 WAR (although he started his career with Baltimore as a Rule 5 pick, his WAR for the Yankees count since he was drafted and developed by them)
Anthony Volpe — 6.3 WAR
Clarke Schmidt — 3.1 WAR
Austin Wells — 2.7 WAR
Now, you as a reader may think, “but the Astros were bad and they consistently got the best picks early!” They did, and they succeeded with them. Those players could have just as easily struggled in the minors and never made it.
Here’s the #’s of expected WAR, meaning at each draft position there’s an expected WAR number that that pick should achieve (signed players only). For example, in the same bonus pool era (2012-present) the number 1 overall pick nets 8.4 WAR. Per the table below, the number two overall pick has the highest WAR at 9.6.
Below are some examples of the 5 highest players in WAR at the #2 overall pick (plus the year they are drafted).
On an overall scale, only two teams in this span have a positive WAR over expected amongst drafted and signed players. The Houston Astros and the St. Louis Cardinals.
This gives a primer into every pick in the bonus pool era and how hard it is to draft and develop players to create value. Twenty eight teams have a negative WAR over expected (which is expected due to the sheer difficulty of a player making it to the MLB). Credit to the Cardinals and Astros organizations for developing these players as they advance through the minor league system.
During this bonus pool era (not including 2024), only six percent of draftees had positive WAR for the team that drafted them (9.4 percent overall).
So, looking at it that way, which organizations have the highest success rate?
Again, the WAR over expected exemplifies how hard it is to get a player to the MLB and how hard it is for that player to be a positive contributor. Interestingly, two of the top five teams had the #1 (Cleveland Guardians) and the #2 (Cincinnati Reds) picks in the MLB draft. Based on that info, Travis Bazzana (Guardians pick) and Chase Burns (Reds Pick) are expected to get 8.4 WAR and 9.6 WAR, respectively.
For other context, the Houston Astros, with the highest WAR over expected, has only a 6.3% success rate. This means of the players that do come up through the Astros organization perform very well (Think Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Jeremy Pena).
Lastly, I wanted to see what colleges produced the most major league players.
From this list, we had all 10 teams from Power 5 schools and schools like Mississippi State and Vanderbilt average nearly 5 WAR per player of the guys who make it to the major leagues. I’m curious if a draft strategy is to only go for now Power 4 players. Sure seems that way with the transfer portal.
Another final thought is when people ask about trades. This analysis is to show how well teams draft and develop players. I don’t believe that a team will draft a player with the intention to trade them.
More will be analyzed soon, especially the idea of the dollar amounts.
Thanks for reading.
