Sunday Notes, 12/19
Offenses in Division 2 Baseball have never been better.
Since 2013 (the first year where stats.ncaa.org tracks individual and overall stats by team), D2 Baseball led in OPS (On Base Plus Slugging Percentage), wOBA (weighted on-base average), runs per plate appearance, among other stat categories.
As a result with this increased offense, ERA has also gone up.
League ERA went from 5.53 in 2019 to 5.40 in 2020 to 6.22 in 2021. 6.22!
What can be explained out of this? Very difficult to have a definitive answer.
One explanation could be that due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and variations to roster sizes, scholarships, etc., is the increase in Division 1 players going to Division 2, especially on the position player side.
Looking at the previous 4 years, we see a big increase in Division 1 position players going to Division 2 by at least 5% in any of the 3 previous seasons. Does this make a difference?
At least from the previous season, it shows that there is a 50 point difference in OPS from D1 bounce backs. So, a possibility.
Another possibility that isn’t quantifiable is that hitting coaches, over the pandemic, learned more about hitting and applied it better than pitching coaches at this level. Potentially swings, swing decisions, barrel rate, etc., were improved better than pitching.
All in all, I found it very interesting that the Division 2 baseball season was a season unlike any other. Offenses are never better, which means the next competitive advantage is developing pitching and defense.
Thanks for reading. Happy Holidays.
